Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

前兆异常与地震相关性研究—— 一个值得广大地震学者重视的问题

简要介绍了前兆异常与地震相关性定量分析方法,并列举了在进行这方面研究中目前存在的薄弱环节和困难,以期引起广大地震分析预报人员的重视。     

浙北地震空区探讨

分析探讨了浙江鄞县４２级地震及历史上浙北中强震前的地震空区现象,认为孕震空区可能是浙北中等及中强震的中期前兆,并提出浙北孕震空区的特征及判别方法。     

Modeling trihalomethane formation for Jabal Amman water supply in Jordan

A mathematical model that expresses Total trihalomethane (TTHM) concentration in terms of initial chlorine concentration, total organic carbon, bromide ion concentration, contact time, and pH is developed for Zai water treatment plant which supplies water to Jabal Amman. The developed mathematical model is for constant temperature of 20°C. To adjust model calculated TTHM concentrations for temperatures other than 20°C, another mathematical model that expresses TTHM growth rate as function of temperature is also developed. To test the ability of the two developed models in predicting TTHM concentrations throughout water supplies, a sampling program that aimed at measuring TTHM concentrations in addition to the predictors in the two developed mathematical models namely; chlorine concentration, bromide ion concentration, total organic carbon, temperature and pH throughout Jabal Amman water supply was conducted. The two developed mathematical models and WaterCad, which was used to determine water age, were used to predict TTHM concentrations throughout Jabal Amman water supply. Predicted TTHM concentrations were compared to actual TTHM concentrations measured during the sampling program. Results showed that there is good agreement between measured and, calculated TTHM concentrations, which means that the method presented in this paper, can be used to obtain good estimates of TTHM concentrations throughout networks.     

聊古一井地下流体场源兆异常特征及震情预测检验

聊古一井由于其所处的特殊构造部位、良好的水文地质条件、井孔条件和连续可靠的观测,获得了一批有价值的实际地震观测资料,该井水化学组分的异常变化对其周围500 km范围内的5级以上地震具有良好的映震能力。在对聊古一井自1981-01投测以来观测到的水化学地震前兆异常进行综合分析的基础上,探讨了聊古一井水化学异常变化的场源兆特征及异常形成的物理力学机制和地震预报意义。利用上述研究结果,对聊古一井气体总量2003-05~2003-10出现的低值异常变化进行了分析和震情预测,取得较好的效果。     

气象要素及前体物对青岛市臭氧浓度变化的影响

在深入探讨2013—2015年青岛市区O_3污染随时间变化特征的基础上,系统分析了不同气象要素对O_3浓度的影响,并研究了前体物对O_3生成的影响及贡献。结果表明:青岛市区O_3第90百分位日最大8 h滑动平均值和超标率均在2014年达到最高值;O_3浓度在5—10月较高,12月至次年1月浓度最低;O_3日变化呈单峰型变化规律,白天浓度高,夜间浓度低。强太阳辐射、高温、相对湿度60%左右、风速4 m/s左右、偏南风等气象条件下易出现高浓度O_3。O_3的生成主要受前体物VOCs控制,且烯烃对O_3生成的贡献远高于烷烃和芳香烃,控制VOCs尤其是烯烃组分的排放可有效降低青岛市区O_3浓度。     

基于前体物多情景排放的兰州市2030年夏季臭氧预测

近年来,兰州市夏季臭氧污染问题日渐凸显,已成为影响当地环境空气质量达标的首要污染因子和制约环境空气质量持续改善的突出短板.解决臭氧污染问题需结合城市经济发展的实际情况定量评估前体物减排量并提出切实可行的减排对策,为环境管理的中长期规划提供科学依据.在2015年本地排放清单的基础上,通过情景分析法预测了兰州市2030年3种梯度城市发展与污染控制情景下臭氧的两类主要前体物氮氧化物（NO_x）和挥发性有机物（VOCs）的排放量,利用WRF-Chem模型对不同情景下的2030年夏季臭氧污染程度进行了数值模拟,分析了臭氧浓度与生成敏感性的时空变化情况,并提出了兰州市臭氧前体物的总量控制参考和针对不同行政区的减排对策建议.结果表明,3种不同的城市发展与污染控制情景下兰州市2030年NO_x排放量为4.57×10⁴～12.14×10⁴ t, VOCs排放量为5.30×10⁴～7.69×10⁴ t, NO_x排放可通过调整能源结构,加强末端治理和限制机动车...     

季铵型树脂的合成及其对水中溴酸根及前驱物溴离子的吸附性能与机制

水中的溴离子(Br^-)和溴酸根离子(BrO₃^-)由于难挥发、易溶解、稳定性好而难以除去,因此,制备了一种对较低浓度的Br^-和BrO₃^-都有良好吸附去除效果的季铵碱树脂(Quaternary ammonium base resin,QABR)并表征了其物化结构.同时,考察了初始浓度、QABR投加量、溶液pH、离子强度、吸附接触时间和吸附温度等因素对QABR吸附Br^-和BrO₃^-性能的影响.结果表明,在0.05～4.00 mmol·L^-1浓度范围内,在298 K、pH=7.0时QABR对Br^-和BrO₃^-的吸附能力最佳,其最大吸附量分别为1.78 mmol·g^-1和1.65 mmol·g^-1;QABR对Br^-和BrO₃     

广东省夏秋季光化学反应活性空间分布表征

于夏末秋初在深圳市城市和郊区开展了大气OH自由基观测,结果显示OH自由基日间峰值平均浓度分别为6.0×10⁶cm^-3和5.9×10⁶cm^-3,与国内外其他地区相比处于中等水平.基于实测数据构建了拟合效果较好的本地化OH自由基参数化公式,应用于广东省OH自由基空间分布的表征,并进一步利用日间OH和NO₂浓度之积反映光化学反应活性(AP).结果发现,2018年夏秋季广东省大气光化学反应活性总体上呈现珠江三角洲较高,AP达10.1×10⁷μg/(m³·cm³),粤东、粤西、粤北地区较低的分布态势,AP分别为5.4×10⁷, 5.9×10⁷和7.7×10⁷μg/(m³·cm³);同期的PM_2.5和O₃高值区域也集中在珠江三角洲,说明了调控光化学反应活性对珠江三角洲协同控...     

城市水环境PFAAs前驱体污染特征及健康风险

为揭示城市水环境中前驱体对全氟烷基酸（PFAAs）输入特征、分布格局及健康风险的影响,对南京城市污水处理厂出水、河流、湖泊、长江饮用水源地等水体进行了考察.利用HPLC-MS/MS及总可氧化前驱体法（TOP Assay）分析了17种PFAAs与其总可氧化前驱体的污染特征,并通过推演耐受剂量评估了饮水途径的健康风险商（HQ）.结果表明,污水处理厂出水中PFAAs浓度90.6~278ng/L,主要单体PFBS、PFHxA、PFOA占总浓度的63%;总可氧化前驱体浓度239~839pmol/L,PFBA前驱体含量最高.城市地表水中PFAAs浓度61.8~157ng/L,总可氧化前驱体浓度195~572pmol/L,PFBA、PFPeA、PFHxA 3种全氟羧酸的前驱体含量最高,城市河流流经人口密集区后,PFAAs赋存浓度有所上升,但总可氧化前驱体浓度下降.饮用水源地中PFAAs浓度50.9~54.6ng/L,总可氧化前驱体浓度273~372pmol/L,以PFBA、PFPeA和PFHxA 3种全氟羧酸的前驱体为主.相对高风险来源于PFOS的免疫毒性（HQ=0.024）以及PFOA的发育毒性（HQ=0.0073）和生殖毒性（HQ=0.0039）,可氧化前驱体转化可能将二者潜在风险提高23%和40%.水环境中广泛赋存的前驱体可能增加PFAAs的环境暴露及健康风险.